Probability - Quant/Math - CAT 2013

Question 4 the day: August 23, 2002
The question for the day is from the topic of probability.

A man bets on number 16 on a roulette wheel 14 times and losses each time. On the 15^th span he does a quick calculation and finds out that the number 12 had appeared twice in the 14 spans and is therefore, unable to decide whether to bet on 16 or 12 in the 15^th span. Which will give him the best chance and what are the odds of winning on the bet that he takes? (Roulette has numbers 1 to 36)

(1)

16; 22 : 14

(2)

12; 72 : 1

(3)

12; 7 : 1

(4)

Either; 35 : 1

Solution:

Each of the span is an independent event and the outcome of the 15^th span will not depend on the outcome of the earlier spans.